Type I and type II error probabilities in the courtroom


Abstract：

We estimate the likelihood of miscarriages of justice by reframing the problem in

the context of misclassified binary choice models.

The estimator is based on new nonparametric identification results,

for which we provide methods to empirically test the key identifying assumptions

as well as alternative identification schemes when these checks fail.

Blacks are found to have both a higher probability of conviction when innocent and

a higher probability of acquittal when guilty, relative to whites.

We go on to show that this seemingly contradictory result is, in fact,

consistent with a model where both police and judges discriminate against blacks.