TSP Version 4.5 (06/20/99) Windows32 4MB Copyright (C) 1999 TSP International ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 06/28/04 2:55 PM In case of questions or problems, see your local TSP consultant or send a description of the problem and the associated TSP output to: TSP International P.O. Box 61015, Station A Palo Alto, CA 94306 USA PROGRAM LINE ****************************************************************** | 1 freq a; | 2 smpl 1980 2000; | 3 read(file='demand.txt') year beefy beefg porky porkg chiy chig beery beerl yd cpiall cpisake cpimeat; | 4 ? print year beefy; | 4 | 4 ryd=yd/(cpiall/100); | 5 pbeef=(beefy/beefg)/(cpimeat/100); | 6 ppork=(porky/porkg)/(cpimeat/100); | 7 pchi=(chiy/chig)/(cpimeat/100); | 8 olsq beefg c ryd pbeef ppork pchi; | 9 | 9 lbeefg=log(beefg); | 10 lryd=log(ryd); | 11 lpbeef=log(pbeef); | 12 lppork=log(ppork); | 13 lpchi=log(pchi); | 14 olsq lbeefg c lryd lpbeef lppork lpchi; | 15 ar1 lbeefg c lryd lpbeef lppork lpchi; | 16 | 16 lporkbeef=log(ppork/pbeef); | 17 lchibeef=log(pchi/pbeef); | 18 olsq lbeefg c lryd lporkbeef lchibeef; | 19 ar1 lbeefg c lryd lporkbeef lchibeef; | 20 | 20 smpl 1981 2000; | 21 olsq lbeefg c lryd(-1) lporkbeef lchibeef; | 22 ar1 lbeefg c lryd(-1) lporkbeef lchibeef; | 23 | 23 olsq lbeefg c lryd lporkbeef(-1) lchibeef(-1); | 24 ar1 lbeefg c lryd lporkbeef(-1) lchibeef(-1); | 25 end; EXECUTION ******************************************************************************* Current sample: 1980 to 2000 Equation 1 ============ Method of estimation = Ordinary Least Squares Dependent variable: BEEFG Current sample: 1980 to 2000 Number of observations: 21 Mean of dep. var. = 10606.7 LM het. test = 2.88571 [.089] Std. dev. of dep. var. = 875.353 Durbin-Watson = .916406 [.000,.047] Sum of squared residuals = .452687E+07 Jarque-Bera test = 5.05910 [.080] Variance of residuals = 282930. Ramsey's RESET2 = .197436 [.663] Std. error of regression = 531.911 F (zero slopes) = 9.54123 [.000] R-squared = .704606 Schwarz B.I.C. = 166.360 Adjusted R-squared = .630757 Log likelihood = -158.748 Estimated Standard Variable Coefficient Error t-statistic P-value C -7470.24 8303.67 -.899631 [.382] RYD .030330 .865497E-02 3.50432 [.003] PBEEF 154.603 639.009 .241942 [.812] PPORK 473.121 4767.19 .099245 [.922] PCHI 3297.03 5837.55 .564797 [.580] Equation 2 ============ Method of estimation = Ordinary Least Squares Dependent variable: LBEEFG Current sample: 1980 to 2000 Number of observations: 21 Mean of dep. var. = 9.26604 LM het. test = 2.49985 [.114] Std. dev. of dep. var. = .081736 Durbin-Watson = .932258 [.000,.052] Sum of squared residuals = .035652 Jarque-Bera test = 4.56550 [.102] Variance of residuals = .222824E-02 Ramsey's RESET2 = .116171 [.738] Std. error of regression = .047204 F (zero slopes) = 10.9910 [.000] R-squared = .733173 Schwarz B.I.C. = -29.5650 Adjusted R-squared = .666467 Log likelihood = 37.1763 Estimated Standard Variable Coefficient Error t-statistic P-value C -7.57642 4.46955 -1.69512 [.109] LRYD 1.28895 .343139 3.75635 [.002] LPBEEF .048243 .175942 .274197 [.787] LPPORK .047692 .633226 .075315 [.941] LPCHI .326959 .534980 .611161 [.550] Equation 3 ============ FIRST-ORDER SERIAL CORRELATION OF THE ERROR Objective function: Exact ML (keep first obs.) Working space used: 909 STARTING VALUES C LRYD LPBEEF LPPORK VALUE -7.57642 1.28895 0.048243 0.047692 LPCHI RHO VALUE 0.32696 0.00000 F= -37.176 FNEW= -40.629 ISQZ= 1 STEP= 0.50000 CRIT= 12.008 F= -40.629 FNEW= -41.024 ISQZ= 0 STEP= 1.0000 CRIT= 0.68795 F= -41.024 FNEW= -41.094 ISQZ= 0 STEP= 1.0000 CRIT= 0.11471 F= -41.094 FNEW= -41.112 ISQZ= 0 STEP= 1.0000 CRIT= 0.29806E-01 F= -41.112 FNEW= -41.115 ISQZ= 0 STEP= 1.0000 CRIT= 0.58000E-02 F= -41.115 FNEW= -41.115 ISQZ= 0 STEP= 1.0000 CRIT= 0.34646E-03 F= -41.115 FNEW= -41.115 ISQZ= 0 STEP= 1.0000 CRIT= 0.15663E-05 F= -41.115 FNEW= -41.115 ISQZ= 0 STEP= 1.0000 CRIT= 0.33613E-10 F= -41.115 FNEW= -41.115 ISQZ= 1 STEP= 0.50000 CRIT= 0.15794E-19 CONVERGENCE ACHIEVED AFTER 9 ITERATIONS 19 FUNCTION EVALUATIONS. Dependent variable: LBEEFG Current sample: 1980 to 2000 Number of observations: 21 Mean of dep. var. = 9.26604 Adjusted R-squared = .778025 Std. dev. of dep. var. = .081736 Durbin-Watson = 1.81499 Sum of squared residuals = .023502 Rho (autocorrelation coef.) = .797139 Variance of residuals = .156683E-02 Schwarz B.I.C. = -31.9819 Std. error of regression = .039583 Log likelihood = 41.1155 R-squared = .833519 Standard Parameter Estimate Error t-statistic P-value C -.345831 6.41680 -.053895 [.957] LRYD .756048 .474529 1.59326 [.111] LPBEEF -.142137 .445681 -.318921 [.750] LPPORK -.265400 .690664 -.384268 [.701] LPCHI .111493 .591480 .188498 [.850] RHO .797139 .370272 2.15285 [.031] Standard Errors computed from analytic second derivatives (Newton) Equation 4 ============ Method of estimation = Ordinary Least Squares Dependent variable: LBEEFG Current sample: 1980 to 2000 Number of observations: 21 Mean of dep. var. = 9.26604 LM het. test = 2.42569 [.119] Std. dev. of dep. var. = .081736 Durbin-Watson = .769632 [.000,.007] Sum of squared residuals = .037869 Jarque-Bera test = 1.79187 [.408] Variance of residuals = .222758E-02 Ramsey's RESET2 = 1.66394 [.215] Std. error of regression = .047197 F (zero slopes) = 14.3273 [.000] R-squared = .716581 Schwarz B.I.C. = -30.4538 Adjusted R-squared = .666566 Log likelihood = 36.5429 Estimated Standard Variable Coefficient Error t-statistic P-value C -3.68409 2.17906 -1.69068 [.109] LRYD .991459 .169662 5.84372 [.000] LPORKBEEF -.217326 .574706 -.378152 [.710] LCHIBEEF .109094 .488289 .223422 [.826] Equation 5 ============ FIRST-ORDER SERIAL CORRELATION OF THE ERROR Objective function: Exact ML (keep first obs.) Working space used: 767 STARTING VALUES C LRYD LPORKBEEF LCHIBEEF RHO VALUE -3.68409 0.99146 -0.21733 0.10909 0.00000 F= -36.543 FNEW= -38.641 ISQZ= 1 STEP= 0.50000 CRIT= 21.501 F= -38.641 FNEW= -39.895 ISQZ= 0 STEP= 1.0000 CRIT= 3.6541 F= -39.895 FNEW= -40.810 ISQZ= 1 STEP= 0.50000 CRIT= 2.6094 F= -40.810 FNEW= -41.004 ISQZ= 0 STEP= 1.0000 CRIT= 0.33288 F= -41.004 FNEW= -41.020 ISQZ= 0 STEP= 1.0000 CRIT= 0.32779E-01 F= -41.020 FNEW= -41.020 ISQZ= 0 STEP= 1.0000 CRIT= 0.95980E-04 F= -41.020 FNEW= -41.020 ISQZ= 0 STEP= 1.0000 CRIT= 0.13044E-08 F= -41.020 FNEW= -41.020 ISQZ= 0 STEP= 1.0000 CRIT= 0.45910E-18 CONVERGENCE ACHIEVED AFTER 8 ITERATIONS 18 FUNCTION EVALUATIONS. Dependent variable: LBEEFG Current sample: 1980 to 2000 Number of observations: 21 Mean of dep. var. = 9.26604 Adjusted R-squared = .774630 Std. dev. of dep. var. = .081736 Durbin-Watson = 1.75131 Sum of squared residuals = .024353 Rho (autocorrelation coef.) = .669315 Variance of residuals = .152207E-02 Schwarz B.I.C. = -33.4088 Std. error of regression = .039014 Log likelihood = 41.0201 R-squared = .819704 Standard Parameter Estimate Error t-statistic P-value C -2.86433 3.60846 -.793783 [.427] LRYD .938435 .278314 3.37186 [.001] LPORKBEEF -.103558 .541662 -.191186 [.848] LCHIBEEF .155891 .521993 .298645 [.765] RHO .669315 .220116 3.04073 [.002] Standard Errors computed from analytic second derivatives (Newton) Current sample: 1981 to 2000 Equation 6 ============ Method of estimation = Ordinary Least Squares Dependent variable: LBEEFG Current sample: 1981 to 2000 Number of observations: 20 Mean of dep. var. = 9.27325 LM het. test = 1.88714 [.170] Std. dev. of dep. var. = .076702 Durbin-Watson = .792044 [.000,.012] Sum of squared residuals = .041958 Jarque-Bera test = 1.19513 [.550] Variance of residuals = .262237E-02 Ramsey's RESET2 = 2.05510 [.172] Std. error of regression = .051209 F (zero slopes) = 8.87525 [.001] R-squared = .624640 Schwarz B.I.C. = -27.2980 Adjusted R-squared = .554260 Log likelihood = 33.2894 Estimated Standard Variable Coefficient Error t-statistic P-value C -2.21471 2.25649 -.981487 [.341] LRYD(-1) .876016 .172691 5.07275 [.000] LPORKBEEF -.535044 .829642 -.644909 [.528] LCHIBEEF .278382 .697846 .398917 [.695] Equation 7 ============ FIRST-ORDER SERIAL CORRELATION OF THE ERROR Objective function: Exact ML (keep first obs.) Working space used: 739 STARTING VALUES C LRYD(-1) LPORKBEEF LCHIBEEF RHO VALUE -2.21471 0.87602 -0.53504 0.27838 0.00000 F= -33.289 FNEW= -35.878 ISQZ= 1 STEP= 0.50000 CRIT= 18.318 F= -35.878 FNEW= -36.589 ISQZ= 0 STEP= 1.0000 CRIT= 2.9571 F= -36.589 FNEW= -37.283 ISQZ= 1 STEP= 0.50000 CRIT= 1.9407 F= -37.283 FNEW= -37.293 ISQZ= 0 STEP= 1.0000 CRIT= 0.20575E-01 F= -37.293 FNEW= -37.293 ISQZ= 0 STEP= 1.0000 CRIT= 0.53746E-04 F= -37.293 FNEW= -37.293 ISQZ= 0 STEP= 1.0000 CRIT= 0.25112E-09 F= -37.293 FNEW= -37.293 ISQZ= 1 STEP= 0.50000 CRIT= 0.14721E-19 CONVERGENCE ACHIEVED AFTER 7 ITERATIONS 16 FUNCTION EVALUATIONS. Dependent variable: LBEEFG Current sample: 1981 to 2000 Number of observations: 20 Mean of dep. var. = 9.27325 Adjusted R-squared = .685560 Std. dev. of dep. var. = .076702 Durbin-Watson = 1.82540 Sum of squared residuals = .027785 Rho (autocorrelation coef.) = .641393 Variance of residuals = .185235E-02 Schwarz B.I.C. = -29.8040 Std. error of regression = .043039 Log likelihood = 37.2934 R-squared = .751758 Standard Parameter Estimate Error t-statistic P-value C -.234334 4.08406 -.057378 [.954] LRYD(-1) .725215 .309623 2.34225 [.019] LPORKBEEF -.214630 .698888 -.307102 [.759] LCHIBEEF .091799 .578025 .158814 [.874] RHO .641393 .217026 2.95538 [.003] Standard Errors computed from analytic second derivatives (Newton) Equation 8 ============ Method of estimation = Ordinary Least Squares Dependent variable: LBEEFG Current sample: 1981 to 2000 Number of observations: 20 Mean of dep. var. = 9.27325 LM het. test = 1.49016 [.222] Std. dev. of dep. var. = .076702 Durbin-Watson = .937368 [.000,.034] Sum of squared residuals = .032194 Jarque-Bera test = 4.64057 [.098] Variance of residuals = .201214E-02 Ramsey's RESET2 = 1.45383 [.247] Std. error of regression = .044857 F (zero slopes) = 13.1844 [.000] R-squared = .711987 Schwarz B.I.C. = -29.9468 Adjusted R-squared = .657985 Log likelihood = 35.9382 Estimated Standard Variable Coefficient Error t-statistic P-value C -4.14596 2.26126 -1.83348 [.085] LRYD 1.02849 .177757 5.78594 [.000] LPORKBEEF(-1) -.709418 .561097 -1.26434 [.224] LCHIBEEF(-1) .449413 .483464 .929570 [.366] Equation 9 ============ FIRST-ORDER SERIAL CORRELATION OF THE ERROR Objective function: Exact ML (keep first obs.) Working space used: 739 STARTING VALUES C LRYD LPORKBEEF(-1) LCHIBEEF(-1) RHO VALUE -4.14596 1.02849 -0.70942 0.44941 0.00000 F= -35.938 FNEW= -39.016 ISQZ= 1 STEP= 0.50000 CRIT= 11.750 F= -39.016 FNEW= -39.151 ISQZ= 0 STEP= 1.0000 CRIT= 0.28825 F= -39.151 FNEW= -39.153 ISQZ= 0 STEP= 1.0000 CRIT= 0.33711E-02 F= -39.153 FNEW= -39.153 ISQZ= 0 STEP= 1.0000 CRIT= 0.95463E-06 F= -39.153 FNEW= -39.153 ISQZ= 1 STEP= 0.50000 CRIT= 0.11556E-12 CONVERGENCE ACHIEVED AFTER 5 ITERATIONS 11 FUNCTION EVALUATIONS. Dependent variable: LBEEFG Current sample: 1981 to 2000 Number of observations: 20 Mean of dep. var. = 9.27325 Adjusted R-squared = .740962 Std. dev. of dep. var. = .076702 Durbin-Watson = 1.74561 Sum of squared residuals = .022868 Rho (autocorrelation coef.) = .582802 Variance of residuals = .152452E-02 Schwarz B.I.C. = -31.6634 Std. error of regression = .039045 Log likelihood = 39.1528 R-squared = .795497 Standard Parameter Estimate Error t-statistic P-value C -2.58931 3.46306 -.747695 [.455] LRYD .902804 .269492 3.35002 [.001] LPORKBEEF(-1) -.145493 .592257 -.245659 [.806] LCHIBEEF(-1) .012345 .508786 .024264 [.981] RHO .582802 .204127 2.85509 [.004] Standard Errors computed from analytic second derivatives (Newton) ******************************************************************************* END OF OUTPUT. MEMORY USAGE: ITEM: DATA ARRAY TOTAL MEMORY UNITS: (4-BYTE WORDS) (MEGABYTES) MEMORY ALLOCATED : 500000 4.0 MEMORY ACTUALLY REQUIRED : 2773 2.1 CURRENT VARIABLE STORAGE : 1886